Inden valget i Zimbabwe
Valget finder sted i en atmosfære af forvirring og forfølgelse af fagligt aktive. I februar blev ni ledere og medlemmer af Progressive Teachers’ Union of Zimbabwe kidnappet af en gruppe fra regeringspartiet ZANU-PF og underkastet tortur og seksuelle overgreb i kælderen under regeringspartiets hovedkontor. Det var straffen for at uddele flyveblade om krisen i landets uddannelsessystem.
Artiklen herunder beskriver harmen og mistroen til systemet, men også den stærke vilje til at forandre situationen, der endnu findes i landet.
Bright Chibvuri skriver til daglig for avisen “The Worker” i Zimbabwe og vil også bidrage til vores næste magasin, som udkommer i slutningen af april.
Zimbabweans face tough elections
For the first time, Zimbabweans are faced with one of the most difficult elections which have been marred by widespread confusion because of the complexity of the voting process.
Given the fact that there are no adequate resources and waterproof mechanisms to handle such a huge election government’s leading role to preside over the polls has also cast doubt for prospects of free and fair polls.
The harmonised election requires Zimbabweans to vote for four candidates at once which is a serious challenge for those conducting the elections, counting the votes and tabulation of the results. Massive rigging in this case can not be dismissed.
The Zimbabwe Election Support Network, an independent organization which promotes free and fair elections has expressed fears that a repeat of the 2002 presidential elections, when tens of thousands of voters were turned away across the country was imminent.
The country’s longtime ruler, Robert Mugabe is seeking re-election amid an economic meltdown, characterized by skyrocketing inflation, shortages of basic goods and collapsing public services. He is battling for supremacy against his former finance minister, Dr. Simba Makoni and trade unionist, Morgan Tsvangirai.
A list of polling stations released by the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) for the March 29 vote showed a significant discrepancy that favored the ruling party in its rural strongholds. The civic organization also noted that even if voting hours were extended, many people were likely to be turned away when polling stations finally closed.
For example, in Harare, 379 polling centers have been established for about 760,000 registered voters, giving a total number of 2,022 voting at each station over 12 hours. If there is maximum turnout, that gives each citizen an average of 22 seconds to vote for four candidates which is practically impossible to achieve says ZESN.
To make matters worse civic organizations have been barred from conducting voter education programmes which is critical at this point because of the complexity of the process. There is bound to be more spoiled ballots especially in the rural areas where the aged and the illiterate might cause delays when voting.
Despite this, pundits and political analysts have predicted a humiliating defeat for Mugabe at the hands of the MDC president, with Makoni behind. Mugabe will be placed a distant third, ahead of Towungana who has not taken his presidential campaign seriously.
Among the issues staked against a Mugabe defeat, according to political analysts, is the current economic malaise in the country, where things are slowly grinding to a halt. Fears within the country’s business community are that, a Mugabe win would spell massive closures of the remaining companies.
MDC secretary general, Tendai Biti has said it would be a miracle for Mugabe to come out of the March 29 poll victorious, considering that the whole country blames him for the current economic problems which have adversely affected the general populace of the country. .
Zimbabwe is currently saddled in an economic mess which has been coupled with widespread shortages of food, the highest inflation in the world, acute fuel shortages, high transport costs and human flight to the diaspora.
Political commentator and social scientist, Professor Eldred Masunungure who heads the Mass Public Opinion Institute, (MPOI) which last year gave Mugabe an urge over Tsvangirai if elections were to be held at that time, released new results of a recent survey in which Tsvangirai had now taken the lead.
Masunungure however argued that of the four presidential candidates, none of them would garner the required 51 percent to win the poll resulting in the presidential election going into second round..
Results of the MPOI survey which was carried out after the nomination court seating in February, gave Mugabe 20,3 percent of the vote, Makoni 8,6 percent and Tsvangirai at 28,3 percent.
The research institute however said a lot of votes were still up for grabs as a number of voters refused to disclose their choices.
Critics also said Mugabe as an interested party in these elections should not have a controlling stake in the administration of the plebiscite but this seems too late because results of the delimitation commission which he appointed already indicate that more constituencies have been created in areas where his party commands support.
He has also summoned key civil servants including soldiers to go to their respective rural areas to help campaign for the ruling party. Obviously this means the setting up of torture chambers to target members of the opposition parties.
It is also not clear how the armed forces will react to a Mugabe defeat given the expression by Zimbabwe Prison boss Retired Major General Paradzai Zimhondi that uniformed forces will not salute any leader without war credentials.
The Zimbabwe trade union body said the statement undermines people’s freedom and will only help to stimulate anarchy if Mugabe besieges office even if he emerges the loser.
Members of the army were given unexplained hefty salaries and cash advances in February to squash a possible rebellion much to the disgruntlement of entire civic servants who responded by threatening to embark on a massive strike.
Now Mugabe, fearing to lose this crucial election has offered civil servants an undisclosed salary increase across the board but economists warned that this will further fuel inflation already at 150 000 percent.
Only last week Mugabe again opened his bag of tricks by commissioning the farm mechanisation programmes where he promised his supporters farming implements. Surprisingly the programme is being spearheaded and bankrolled by the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe.
“What we have seen is a total abuse of national assets and resources by the ruling party to win support. This is unacceptable because government institutions should be impartial,” said political commentator, John Makumbe.
Like any other election the ruling party is again using its old tricks of promising fictitious projects like the construction of dams to the rural voters while scarce basic commodities such as sugar, salt and cooking oil are being used to as a bait to lure support.
Despite this, shocking reports by other independent election support organisations indicate that Mugabe’s popularity has dwindled by more than 40 percent in the rural areas because “people have been pushed too far and are prepared to try other alternatives”, according to a survey by the Crisis in Zimbabwe Coalition.
In most rural areas traditional chiefs who in the past have supported the ruling party are now allowing opposition parties to campaign in their areas. Their shift has prompted Mugabe to unleash the notorious Central Intelligence Organisation operatives to harass and punish the chiefs and threatening to withdraw government benefits entitled to them such as motor vehicles and payouts.
“We can not be used anymore. Enough is enough. Zanu PF is now history and we are waiting for change,” said 60 year Chief Gandanzara from Manicaland Province.
The entry of Simba Makoni who has for a long time been tipped as a potential successor for the ageing octogenarian leader, Mugabe, has added colour, excitement and another interesting dimension to the presidential race.
Many think Makoni will win by a wide margin because he has what it takes to be the next president. In fact an informal survey to test his popularity predicts he stands to win by a whooping 75 percent of the presidential ballot.
Although Makoni is viewed as a level headed and credible aspirant, his ability to lure support especially from hard-line Mugabe supporters in the rural areas and winning the hearts of impoverished urbanites who have been in the trenches with Morgan Tsvangirai for the past eight years remains a challenge.
Many accuse him of being part of the problem since he was in Mugabe’s cabinet since independence in 1980 and also participated fully in making decisions which led to demise of the once robust economy.
It is also not clear how Makoni if elected as president will form a government of national unity given the acute differences between the main rival parties, Zanu PF and the MDC in terms of ideological thrust.
Unlike Tsvangirai who is identified with the ordinary people especially the working class, Makoni has been likened to the urban elite because of his academic approach to issues.
For now, Morgan Tsvangirai, seems to be in the comfort zone as his popularity especially in the rural areas has moved a notch up while Mugabe’s legacy faces total collapse.
There are also fears that Makoni will definitely split both the MDC and Zanu PF votes which will see a re-run of the elections because no either candidate will garner the 51 percent majority to be declared winner.
While the police claim that peace prevails ahead of the election the opposition has reported a resurgence of incidents of violence.
“This confirms we are headed for another bloody election. The leopard has not changed its spots,” said Nelson Chamisa, MDC spokesperson.
However, government has also come under fire for handpicking external election monitors and observers from ‘friendly’ countries mostly from the Asian bloc.
Even though, the so called the monitors and observers from these so-called friendly countries are not yet in place, the conditions prior to, during and after an election determine the extent to which it can be declared free and fair.